Classification models trained on your subscriber records, usage history, service contact logs, and network quality experience data. Features include: contract tenure, usage volume trend (voice minutes, data GB over last 3 months vs. 6 months prior), bill shock events (charges significantly above average), number of contacts to support in last 90 days, complaints history, network quality score (derived from drive test data or probe data for the cell sites the subscriber uses), and days-to-contract-end. Gradient boosting (XGBoost or LightGBM) produces probability estimates calibrated with Platt scaling so the output 0.72 churn probability represents approximately 72% actual churn rate in that score band, making offer cost decisions tractable. SHAP values per subscriber explain the top contributing factors to each risk score.
Scores each subscriber by churn probability at a 30-60-90 day horizon with separate models per horizon. High-risk subscribers enter a retention workflow, a targeted offer, proactive service call, or tariff review, before they submit a cancellation or PAC request. Intervention threshold is tuned against subscriber value tiers (ARPU, CLV) and offer cost structure to avoid discounting subscribers who would have stayed without an incentive. Uplift modelling (the fraction of at-risk subscribers who retain because of the intervention, not despite it) measures actual ROI of retention spend and informs future campaign budget allocation.